by erzats » Sun Jan 17, 2010 10:22 am
In a moderate strength el nino, the tropics do not hold dominion over our weather. The tendency is to have a greater likelihood of el nino type weather which does not categorically mean dry and warm up here. It means warmer than normal (southerly storms when they come) and more persistent high pressure when it does show up. Until the past month, this el nino has been of the weak variety. It's moderately strong now and the southerly storms fit the bill perfectly. All kinds of warnings are out for LA to get soaked, and fall apart in a world of mudslides beginning tomorrow. Looks like California will get cut-off the week after this, and we may be under high pressure and warmth then with the jet stream splitting leaving us warm and dry. Some years, the split jet can last a long time. we'll see what this year does. My forecast is for the storms to taper later this week and maybe a trend toward drier, warmer conditions with long period surf that will still be too big for most.