The Spreadsheet

[holddown]

... as far as the spreadsheet goes, I'm planning on taking it to a whole new level.

Like the third dimension? ...back to the future?

Here we go...

I now have five full years of information in my surf journal in a Word document that has grown to 147 pages. The daily entries range from detailed descriptions of conditions, waves, unusual events, and photos to something as simple as "surfed twice".

I had fallen behind in the tabulation of data from the journal to the yearly spreadsheet, so to start; I had to finish the spreadsheets for 2008 and 2009.

Here's 2008:

The 2008 monthly totals were impacted by inland vacations in August and December.

Here's 2009:

I had minor knee surgery in mid March and was out for 4 weeks, affecting the totals for March & April. I rehabbed the knee by riding a stationary bike and swimming, explaining the higher than normal "other" activity in April. The spike of running in August was training for and running Hood to Coast. After Hood to Coast, I retired from running, so the entries fall to zero.

In a half-assed attempt to draw some conclusions about seasonal surfing trends in Oregon, the surf session data for five years can be compared:


It's annoying to analyze a table of numbers, so I created some three dimensional graphs, starting with the daily data:

The daily resolution of this graph is too fine, but long periods of good surf or down periods can be identified. The longest period of inactivity due to conditions alone is early January of 2008. Other periods of inactivity are explained by inland vacations and the knee surgery.

Next, I created a surface graph of the monthly data for five years:

The darker colors represent fewer sessions, while the lighter colors represent more sessions. A trend of higher activity in the summer and fall can be identified, as well as high activity in April '06. The dips in August are the inland vacations, so that doesn't represent lack of surf. Some of the higher activity during the summer is due to more daylight hours, allowing for multiple sessions.

Finally, I reorganized the data to get weekly totals, and created another surface graph with somewhat finer resolution:

The same trends can be identified, and the weekly resolution is a good visual compromise.

Notes:
The highest daily total was three sessions, but I was conservative. For example, there were days when I surfed four contest heats and had a free surf, but I usually called two heats a single session.
The highest weekly total was 12 sessions in August '06.
The highest monthly total was 37 sessions in October '08.
The leap day session on 2/29/08 was added to 2/28/08 for simplification.
All images were created with Microsoft Excel. I bet dubstar has some map making tools that would make the surface graphs easier to read.

[Doc]

[LC]

... as far as the spreadsheet goes, I'm planning on taking it to a whole new level.

Like the third dimension? ...back to the future?

Here we go...

I now have five full years of information in my surf journal in a Word document that has grown to 147 pages. The daily entries range from detailed descriptions of conditions, waves, unusual events, and photos to something as simple as "surfed twice".

I had fallen behind in the tabulation of data from the journal to the yearly spreadsheet, so to start; I had to finish the spreadsheets for 2008 and 2009.

Here's 2008:

The 2008 monthly totals were impacted by inland vacations in August and December.

Here's 2009:

I had minor knee surgery in mid March and was out for 4 weeks, affecting the totals for March & April. I rehabbed the knee by riding a stationary bike and swimming, explaining the higher than normal "other" activity in April. The spike of running in August was training for and running Hood to Coast. After Hood to Coast, I retired from running, so the entries fall to zero.

In a half-assed attempt to draw some conclusions about seasonal surfing trends in Oregon, the surf session data for five years can be compared:


It's annoying to analyze a table of numbers, so I created some three dimensional graphs, starting with the daily data:

The daily resolution of this graph is too fine, but long periods of good surf or down periods can be identified. The longest period of inactivity due to conditions alone is early January of 2008. Other periods of inactivity are explained by inland vacations and the knee surgery.

Next, I created a surface graph of the monthly data for five years:

The darker colors represent fewer sessions, while the lighter colors represent more sessions. A trend of higher activity in the summer and fall can be identified, as well as high activity in April '06. The dips in August are the inland vacations, so that doesn't represent lack of surf. Some of the higher activity during the summer is due to more daylight hours, allowing for multiple sessions.

Finally, I reorganized the data to get weekly totals, and created another surface graph with somewhat finer resolution:

The same trends can be identified, and the weekly resolution is a good visual compromise.

Notes:
The highest daily total was three sessions, but I was conservative. For example, there were days when I surfed four contest heats and had a free surf, but I usually called two heats a single session.
The highest weekly total was 12 sessions in August '06.
The highest monthly total was 37 sessions in October '08.
The leap day session on 2/29/08 was added to 2/28/08 for simplification.
All images were created with Microsoft Excel. I bet dubstar has some map making tools that would make the surface graphs easier to read.

hhmmm..if you're smokin it, you should probably stop.

If you're not, you should probably start....

[riverjetty]

I can make sense of Doc's chart.

[bluesilver]

Impressed, and that actually takes a lot. Unless we are talking about boobs of course.

[pra_ggresion]

Those graphical analysis bring a tear to my eye. Holdown is the biggest dork I've ever come across and I mean that as compliment. Such an enggineer.

Doc's looks like the solution to a multivariate optimization problem.

[SooLoo]

Just don't anyone else quote HD's chart thingy. I lost feeling in my face trying to make sense of it.

[Doc]

Sooloo

To simplify:

Sometimes he surfed...
Sometimes he didn't.

Doc

[the dude]

[holddown]

Holdown is the biggest dork I've ever come across...

That's one of the nicest things anyone has ever said about me, thanks.

I was hoping that this exercise would provide some entertainment value, but I was also expecting to be able to draw some conclusions about seasonal surf conditions in Oregon. I’m somewhat dissatisfied with the complexity of the surface graphs and the corruption of the data due to personal events which prevented the opportunity to surf. I’m also concerned about the nerve endings in SooLoo’s face, so I decided to further reduce the data.

To start, I went back to the daily data and looked for relatively long periods of non surfing and checked the journal entries to determine if the inactivity was due to illness, injury, travelling, or just poor conditions. I then averaged the number of sessions by day, ignoring the entries when the opportunity to surf was prevented by personal circumstances.
Here is the result:

Some trends are emerging, but the daily resolution is too fine, as before.

To smooth the graph, I computed the weekly averages:

Now this is progress, showing that the summer and fall have the most activity, with the least activity near the winter solstice.

Now, computing the monthly averages over the five year period reduces more than 1800 days of data to a simple graph with 12 values:

The graph again shows that the maximum number of surfing opportunities occur in the summer and fall with the minimum in the dead of winter. I think it’s somewhat surprising that the springtime months provide fewer opportunities than the fall.

On a final note, remember that these curves represent the quantity of surfing opportunities, not the quality of the surf.

[SooLoo]

Thanks for your consideration regarding my face.

I would caution you from allowing your wife to read this thread.

Your cover will be blown.

If it's already not and you are doing this from a motel room.

[Dub Star]

Your surface model was cool, but I actually like the simplified versions better. Honestly I use excel for graphs as my mapping packages are limited graph-wise. All the 3D surfaces I build are actually modeling topographic and bathometric data, so using this method for statistical data is new to me, yet a very cool idea.

As for surf counting, every year my Mom gets me one of those Surfrider calendars for Xmas and I simply mark every day I surf by drawing a little wave on that day with a sharpe. I don’t count sessions or measure quality, but I do get multiple sessions on occasion. At the end of the year I just total them up. This year I surfed 56 days, woope, but not bad considering my stature these days and 2 days up from last year. I have over a decade worth of those calendars in my basement, so it would be interesting to enter that data and play with it.

I think I can make some assumptions up front though. After moving to Portland my total surf days are at least 60%-75% less than what they used to be. Since living in Portland my surf days have also dropped as well. Think I had like 87 days my 1st year here. But this is due to circumstances that are out of my control and I am OK with. I also don’t have the motivation I did when I first moved here to make that drive all the time and I’ve had 2 surgeries that have kept me dry for at max a month the last 2 years. I do usually surf though even if its crap when I head over, which I didn’t do 5 or so years back when I lived costal.

As for your data, I am impressed with your overall #’s. Stokeworthy indeed. But I am not surprised at all by the overall trends we are seeing. As you know late summer and fall offer the best swell and conditions for your location and most of Oregon. Spring the winds are usually a factor, although the size and shorter period swells seem to work better for the majority of Oregon’s open beachies. This past spring and summer was awful, IMO. Summer you can just plain paddle out, although quality may be limited. I’d be interesting to see a similar study from someone who lives up on the NoCo.

One consideration would be to add a quality measure to your system. Something simple like a 1-5 rating. 1 being surfable say on a LB. 2-3 say 1-3 turns on a wave at wait to head. 4 head to OH 2-5 turns and/or barrels, 5 being epic you know those handful of days we get per year.

Anyways, happy new year to all and let’s hope we all get more days in this year.

[erzats]

The big drop from October to November is the reason so many of us are walking around with guns to our heads in early winter. Pulls the plug on the stoke. This year has been slightly different, however.

[the dude]

have you kept track of time spent driving to and from beach?

[SooLoo]

I doubt it, that's like a gambling addict factoring how much they spent to what they really "won". I also doubt they factor drive time to the casino either.