Wasabi has it pretty well dialled. Whether we have la nina or el nino or neither depends on the tropical sea surface temperatures. Here's the current map:
Which is different than what we had last winter during the olympics for example:
Overall, the current SSTs are classic La Nina and are actually pointing to a quite strong event. Here's what the various models think. A lower dip is a stronger La Nina:
Our current weather pattern which is bringing some first storms to the coast is pretty right-on for a La Nina even though it's really early days. Basically, the N Pac High is strong and anomalously west allowing storms to ride down the west coast right to us. 5 days from now the forecast calls for this set up:
The red blobs are places where storms are or are generated, the contour lines roughly reflect storm tracks. Troughs in these lines are where storms are located. Ridges represent good weather. This type of set up is a classic snow maker were it to occur in the dead of winter. Right now, there isn't enough cold air, so no dice.
The swell chart associated with this weather looks like this:
And period:
Note the NW direction of the swell and the short period. This will be an excellent year for surf in places that need steep NW swell (I can think of a few locales where this applies). Often, La Nina conditions result in cold snaps where we are under arctic influenced high pressure. If such conditions come when a storm generates swell off of Kamchatka in the western Pacific, we get the best surf conditions of all: long period, straight west, and not too huge swell, with light offshore winds. There were a few days in late November 2009 like this.
Basically, wax up the skis/snowboards and/or move to Port Angeles, WA. But, who knows really.
