Little Boy

[Ceedog]

I have been hearing some buzz the last month about a possible El nino'. I wasn't around for the last one, besides warm water what can we expect?

However, most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño during June - August 2009. Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts indicate that conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[SlimVest]

Offshore, sunny, and 5-7ft all winter long!!!

Seriously, when the last strong el nino hit I was surfing open beaches in January. A lot. It was an amazing winter of clean, fun waves. What was it, maybe four winters ago?

All the snow riders were crying while the surfers were partying with naked girls, tasty waves, cold beers, and sun tans!!

It's a way of looking at that wave and saying, "Hey bud, let's party!"

[Dub Star]

Sounds like last winter.

I'm claimin this one's gonna be a stormy one. Last winter was just to fuking good.

[Spent]

Wasn't '97/ '98 the last significant one?

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml

This guys been keeping track...

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (6/16) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) remained in the Active Phase, and was wrapping up it's third consecutive pulse since April 20th (centered on the dateline). The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index remained dead neutral. The Daily SOI index was up some to 5.97. The 30 day average was steady at -8.01 and the 90 day average was steady at -1.44, near where is has been since 5/23 (dead neutral) but dipping a little deeper into negative territory. The SOI indicies remained effectively neutral but a significant change appears to be occurring in the Pacific. Wind anomalies at the surface and the 850 mb level (approx 1000 ft up) indicated that a third incarnation of the Active Phase was peaking out, with weaker westerly wind anomalies pushing from India east into the Pacific over the dateline reaching to Central America, filling the Pacific Basin and expected to hold into June 18th. Finally by 6/20 it's to start moderating, withering away into 6/26. A version of the Inactive Phase is trying to develop in the Indian Ocean, expected to reach the dateline on 6/25, then slowly fading there through 7/5. No energy is forecast reaching even under Hawaii much less Central America. So a weak version of the Inactive Phase is to make an appearance. We remain disposed to believe we are entering a phase biased towards the Active Phase and less supportive of the Inactive Phase, which supports a manifestation of El Nino and signals the death of La Nina. Latest data as of 6/15 indicates warmer than normal waters temps are reported over the entire width of the equatorial Pacific and building off Central America pushing up into Baja Mexico and expected to track north from there. The large cool pool of water off the US West Coast is gone with warm anomalous starting to build along the California coast. This looks very much like El Nino. Below the surface on the equator a steady flow of slightly warmer than normal subsurface water was tracking from the West Pacific over the dateline and then breaking the surface near Central America with warmer water starting to pool up there. It appears that previous episodes of the Active Phase have primed the warm water pump, and are now pushing warmer than normal subsurface water eastward with more building up behind, and feeding a slightly warm regime in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. This is very good news. In fact increased warming can be seen around and east of the Galapagos Islands to near 2 deg C above normal. A Kelvin Wave produced by a Westerly Wind Burst at now 4 deg C above normal is poised to break the surface there. And another Westerly Wind Burst appears to be developing just west of the dateline, larger than previously suspected and possibly setting up another Kelvin wave and more warm water moving east. At this point high pressure and local La Nina conditions off California are a thing of the past. If this pattern persists we expect the tropical season to become more active and surpass the below normal activity levels of the past 3 years. And the North Pacific jetstream is looking better than it has the whole of last winter. But it's not till the later half of July that we might get a real sense of how the Fall might set up. Still, things are looking much better.

[Dub Star]

Mark's on it. Good guy.

El Nino summer of 97 was pretty rad in Oregon. Back when Slim was a snowrider. Blew doors off of this summer so far. And pep's think the water got warm earlier this month.

[erzats]

Here's what the sea surface temperatures look like now (these are anomalies in degrees C):



The SSTs respond to the dynamics that spent quoted, but they help dictate the weather here (pacific northwest). You can see anomalously warm water right over the equator indicating that the trades are dying down, which enables El Nino to deepen. One of the interesting things about the SSTs right now is the prevalence of warm anomaly all over the Northern Pacific.

Here's the full blown La Nina from Jan '08:



See the difference?

Here's the map from one of the strongest El Ninos on record '97-'98



Pretty dramatic. The eastern tropical pacific almost looks angry.

The best part is that Vancouver 2010 is happening this winter with a lot of events on the north shore mountains that simply don't get snow during warm winters (think ski bowl). I think events in whistler will be okay since all the downhillers need is a thin layer of icy snow. But, it could get ugly.

For surf, the warmer equatorial temperatures of an el nino can help keep a storm track alive in the northern pacific giving us a little more swell than usual and helping to keep the nuking north winds somewhat at bay. This winter expect lots of warm rain (pineapple expresses) and WSW swell (bad year for the strait). Of course, it's weather leaning toward climate so any predictions are probably wrong.

[Dub Star]

This winter expect lots of warm rain (pineapple expresses) and WSW swell (bad year for the strait)

Not for the side you curently live near. And really there wasent much action this past winter either, which was fine by me

But I thought the jet stream dipped and sent all the storms to NorCal leaving the PNW realitivley dry durring an El Nino? At least that was the case the year Slim is refering to. I was down there that winter and is was wet while I kept seeing and hearing offshore and sunny up here? That was a mild event though, so who knows. I was snowbro-ing out in the Rockies winter 08 and it sucked, but when I got back to OR summer was pretty damn good that year. This summer been pretty typical so far.

[Ceedog]

Yeah, I thought 97/98 was the last one. Maybe I can get some tuna fishing in this year.

[Spent]

This summer been pretty typical so far.

Its not summer yet. Glass half full dub, c'mon. The effects of El nino isn't due to kick in, until later in the summer.

I've always assumed that El nino typically means drier, milder conditions (and less storm swell) for Northern Oregon and Washington. While CA and BC get hammered. So we get warmer water and better conditions than usual.

[bluesilver]

I'm psyched,

[brobra]

I think that was the summer I surfed for a few weeks in just board shorts down at shorties. I remember no wind. Lots of volleyball. And topless ladies sunbathing!

[scubetubeular]

"predict the onset of El Niño during June - August 2009"


Hmm an El Niño Summer?

[Spent]

Its not just a winter thing. Australian farmers are already sweating it...

[erzats]

El nino talks to the PNW best in the winter time. But, if you live in the Western tropical pacific where ocean temperatures drop, your source of moisture goes away regardless of season.

Plus, there's a weaker but equivalent effect (to our winter el nino condition) in southern hemisphere winter, but that mostly effects the south tip of south america.

[erzats]

Just an el nino update for any of you doubters. Current sea surface temperature maps show a moderately strong el nino that is probably just reaching its peak. Some signs it's here:



It's currently in the mid to low 50s and the snow is melting under rain in the mountains. This will continue into the forecastable future

Many huge west and wsw swells over the last month. The strait fired early in the year but I'm guessing that it has since quieted down quite a bit except for spots in the mouth. There are more big swells to come, but they are going to land under stormy conditions.

the cold was unusual for an el nino, but the high pressures weren't. Expect some kind of strangely warm, sunny days in late Jan and feb (total speculation).

In the coming week expect to watch central and southern california melt into major flooding and mudslides. One of the strongest jet streams I've ever seen in a forecast is setting up and will likely run from russia directly at central and southern california with a lot of warm ocean water in between.



Should be fun. The vancouver olympic organizers should be freaking out as the snow in the main half pipe, moguls, aerials and boarder and skiercross venues is almost gone.

Carnage, I love it.