Kevin,
Glad to see someone else is using their head. Do you remember what crude was trading at before Mar 03'?
I think their is manipulation in commodities, especially gold and silver. For example the amount of paper gold on the market dwarfs the actually available physical gold and the loaning(paper gold) out of loans on loans of loans of gold keep increasing while the physical price stays relatively stagnant. There was a runup this summer but we're in a correction right now that is at odds with the economy. Certain central banks were forecasted to sell off some 500 million ounces of gold this year. Guess what, they are not meeting their quotas, that should increase the price of gold by itself. Just when gold starts to peak these central banks will dump enough(begrudgingly) to make it appear as though confidence in gold has fallen and or profits are being taken. Now this helps our dollar by providing a cover for inflation.
Commodities have not been following their normal patterns in regards to the USD. I think some of what I said above also relates to oil. Also we could credit certain things like the CEO for Mobile was quoted as saying that peak oil is a farse. He said that there's plenty of oil, we just have to go further down to get it. this was after they found that new huge reserve in our gulf. Also a lot of scientists are now on board of the theory that oil is not a 'fossil fuel', but a naturally created substance from the interior of earth.
Back to your topic, I think markets are manipulated all the time. But to do this you need a lot of people 'playing ball'. I don't think this power comes from a guy who makes ~$300K/yr, neither is it being accomplished for the purpose of making him look good.
I think another thing to look at is how does everyone pay for oil. With USD of course, except for when bad players like Iraq, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela toy with the idea of selling it for other currencies. This is a very key point to remember. Our currency is a commodity just like oil, gold, copper, etc. Well, until Iran, Iraq, and Russia started planning to open bourses which trade oil for other currencies, the USD was the only(major) way to buy oil. This automatically made the dollar strong, because you had to acquire(just like a commodity) USD to buy oil. Keep in mind all the doom and gloom forecasted for the USD and news of foreign central banks divesting themselves of USD. This may be more of a reason to lower the price of oil, but the election thing could serve as admitting to a lessor sin. Lower oil prices help economies by decreasing inflation, why can't we do it all the time is a good question.
Sites for more info:
http://www.goldseek.com
http://www.financialtimes.com
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